History of medicine: Pandemics
Disclaimer:
At the timing of writing, COVID-19 has been a known clinical entity for just over one year.
This is an area of intense active research.
The information presented herein is likely to change many times as new evidence is gathered and reported.Causative agent:
- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2)
Disease:
- Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Timeline
- 1st December 2019: Patient zero experiences symptoms in Wuhan.
- Day 23: An unsolved medical case is investigated by bronchoalveolar lavage. The specimen is sent for metagenomic massive parallel sequencing analysis.
- Day 26: SARS-CoV2 is first identified from the specimen.
- Day 41: Chinese state media report the first death from COVID-19.
- Day 49: First confirmed case outside Wuhan, in China.
- Day 50: The Chinese state media characterises the situation as an epidemic.
- Day 50: First confirmed cases in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea.
- Day 52: First confirmed case in North America (Washington state).
- Day 52: First confirmed case in Europe (France).
- Day 56: First confirmed case in Oceania (Australia).
- Day 57: First confirmed case in Canada.
- Day 60: First confirmed case in India.
- Day 61: First confirmed case in Russia.
- Day 62: First confirmed case in United Kingdom.
- Day 76: First confirmed case in Africa (Egypt).
- Day 87: First confirmed case in South America (Brazil).
- Day 89: First confirmed case in Mexico.
- Day 91: First confirmed case in South Africa.
- Day 93: First confirmed case in Argentina.
- Day 101: The World Health Organisation characterises the situation as a pandemic.
- Day 365: Cumulative confirmed cases in the UK = 1,617,331 (2.38%)
- Day 365: Cumulative case fatalities in the UK = 58,245 (0.10%)
- Day 365: Cumulative confirmed cases in the world = 62,411,018 (0.79%)
- Day 365: Cumulative case fatalities in the world = 1,458,118 (0.02%)
- Day 386: United Kingdom announces that strain VUI-2020/01 appears significantly more transmissible than the first strain.
Consequences
- Significant increase in global morbidity and mortality.
- Significant increase in healthcare demands, leading to oversaturation, resource depletion and preventable harm to patients.
- Millions of infections and deaths amongst healthcare workers.
- 2020 stock market crash
- COVID-19 recession
- Significant decrease in revenue for many businesses.
- Mass closure of businesses.
- Significant increase in unemployment.
- Significant increase in domestic violence.
- Significant increase in social isolation and loneliness.
- Significant increase in prevalence and severity of depression, stress, anxiety, and other mental health disorders (e.g. schizophrenia).
- Significant increase in social inequality and poverty.
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